Blog #2 - Problem Articulation

Political Unrest in Russia

                 Anti-government Protests in Russia [1]

Problem Narrative:  With Russia's next presidential election coming up in March, protests against government corruption have broken out in Moscow over the last several months.  As concerns about government corruption and voting fraud have been repeatedly ignored, the Russian people's discontent with Putin and his party, United Russia, has grown.  Tensions increased with Putin's acceptance of his party's nomination to run in the 2012 presidential election and with United Russia's 50% majority in the parliamentary elections (exit polls reported United Russia only won 43% of the vote). [2]

"No Voice" Protests Against Government Corruption [6]

Prior to this up-surge, "Russia's political landscape has been relatively calm and consolidated for the past decade under former President and current Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin." [3]  In 1999 when Putin came into power, Russia, still recovering from the disbandment of the Soviet Union, was suffering from severe political and economic instability.  During his presidential term he was able to implement political, social, and security reforms that helped put Russia back on the track to becoming a global power and gave him the title of "Russia's 'savior'." [4]  After serving two consecutive terms he was, by law, forced to step down but took his place as prime minister and hand picked Dmitri A. Medvedev to secede him allowing Putin to stay in power [5].  In recent years, however, Putin has lost much of his support and is criticized for his manipulation of the Russian electoral system to stay in power.

Behavior Over Time:  To best understand how political stability in Russia is changing overtime, it is important to look at two "dashboard variables."  The first variable to look is the nature of the protests themselves.  As discontent among the people has risen there has been an increase in the size and frequency of protests in Moscow[7].  While violence has stayed at a minimum so far, it is another important indicator the tensions are rising.  The second variable to look at in the "fairness" of the different elections.  This can be measured by comparing exit polls with the government-announced election results.  This addresses the concern of whether the people are actually getting a voice.

Relevance of a Systems Perspective:


Evidence of a Long-Time Horizon:  Political instability in Russia has been a major issue throughout its history, particularly in the last 150 years with the fall of its monarchy, the rise and fall of the Soviet Union, and the recent emergence of a more democratic Russian Federation.  Even with what seemed like a stabilization over the last decade, recent accusations of voting fraud and the increase in protests prove that political  corruption and instability still very much exist.  While protests are likely to pressure the government to make short-term changes, Putin still holds a lot of power and influence.  Even if the protests were successful in forcing Putin to not run for re-election, there still remains the question of who would take his place.  As was seen with Medvedev, though Putin was not officially in power, he was able to maintain control.  Additionally, there is currently no other one party that has any sort of majority of the vote.


Multiple Actors with Differing Mental Models/Competing Goals:  The two major competing actors when looking at the stability of the situation are Putin, along with his United Russia party, and the protesters.  Putin believes that the instability is caused by the protests[8] and US instigation[9].  His focus is on appeasing the protesters in such a way to stop the protests without giving the perception of Russia or of himself being weak[10].  The protesters collectively believe that the problem is rooted in government corruption, particularly that surrounding Putin.  Their focus is to have fair elections and remove Putin from power.


Study Objective and Questions to be Addressed:  The objective of this study is to look at what has been the cause of the protests and the uproar against political corruption.  This study will look at how political stability can be restored and how it could spiral out of control, picking out indicators for both scenarios.


[1]http://www.praguepost.com/news/11929-region-russia-tense-ahead-of-election.html
[2]http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/russia/index.html
[3]http://stratfor.com/analysis/russias-shifting-political-landscape-part-4-putins-challenges
[4]http://stratfor.com/analysis/russias-shifting-political-landscape-part-4-putins-challenges
[5]http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/russia/index.html
[6]http://resources3.news.com.au/images/2011/12/11/1226219/130219-russia-protest-moscow.jpg
[7]http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/russia/index.html
[8]http://stratfor.com/analysis/russias-shifting-political-landscape-part-4-putins-challenges
[9]http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/russia/index.html
[10]http://stratfor.com/analysis/russias-shifting-political-landscape-part-4-putins-challenges